Israel Update: Day 620 – Operation Rising Lion (Day 5)

Operation Rising Lion is now entering day 5 of what continues to be a rapidly developing situation.

• Since Friday, Iran has launched some 350 ballistic missiles at Israel, the vast majority of which were intercepted. ISW reports that the Iranian capacity to conduct missile operations is likely degraded. The IDF has likely destroyed around a third of the Iranian missile launchers.
  • Iran reportedly had between 750 and 1,000 ballistic missiles capable of hitting Israel prior to the conflict, which suggests that Iran has expended nearly half or a third of this ballistic missile stockpile
• Most of Iran’s ballistic missile fire has been aimed at Tel Aviv and Haifa — which are densely populated
• To date, 24 Israelis have been killed and close to 600 have been injured, many seriously.
• There have been over 9,000 rocket alerts across Israel since the beginning of the operation.

• At 6:30 PM ET this evening, President Trump posted the following:
  

  Iran should have signed the “deal” I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!

• The IDF has established air superiority over Iran.
• No Israeli military personnel have been lost since the beginning of the operation
• According to the Institue for the Study of War: Iran has reportedly maintained its uncompromising position regarding nuclear talks, meaning that it is not yet ready to negotiate an end to the war with Israel. Other reports have indicated that Iran may grant concessions if it is allowed to fully retaliate against Israel.
• The United States is deploying additional forces to the Middle East to “provide options to defend US assets and interests.” These forces include a carrier strike group and a high number of refueling tanker aircraft.
• The IAEA indicated that Israeli strikes have likely damaged or destroyed thousands of centrifuges at the Natanz nuclear site. The Fordow site remains largely unscathed, however, according to the IAEA.
• Amit Segal with Israel’s Channel 12 reports: Seven years after the Mossad stole Iran’s nuclear archive, the IDF has destroyed the backup. One of the targets struck in recent days was the backup of Iran’s nuclear archive, which contained the Islamic Republic’s accumulated organizational knowledge on developing nuclear weapons. This is a significant move, because after Israel eliminated all the scientists who had acquired knowledge about weapons systems and enrichment through decades of trial and error, Israel is now destroying what is considered the final backup documenting that knowledge.
• Over 40 senior Iranian officers and scientists have been eliminated in precision attacks

A graphic posted by the Israel Defense Forces showing the location of most if not all of the strikes carried out so far against military targets in Northwestern Iran, with targets including military commanders, nuclear sites, air-defense systems, surface-to-surface missiles, and nuclear scientists working with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) has a real time tracker of all key sites and IDF strikes in Iran. Below is a screen shot as of this evening, but you can view the interactive map here.

Opinions/Analysis

• Matti Friedman in The Free Press: One of the many things that have died in the past 20 months is the idea of the West as a coherent force that can act in its own interests. A few quiet generations in the “free world” have produced leaders who don’t seem to grasp what extraordinarily brutal and ugly things had to be done to make them free, or what must be done to stay that way. This realization is dispiriting, but it does give us some clarity. Netanyahu understands this, and on this point—unlike so many others—the vast majority of Israel’s citizens agree.
• Yaakov Katz writes for the Paul Singer Foundation: Israel’s decision to strike Iran’s nuclear program was not made in a vacuum. This was a narrow window of opportunity that had to be seized – and I believe Israel was right to act. Three core factors shaped the timing.
  • First, Iran’s proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime – have been severely weakened. Hamas is bogged down, Hezbollah is under pressure in the north, and Syria’s strategic capabilities have been largely dismantled. For the first time in years, the threat of a multi-front war was not paralyzing.
  • Second, from a military and intelligence standpoint, Israel had established air dominance over Iran. Years of preparation, including successful strikes last year on advanced air defense systems like the S-300, enabled the Israeli Air Force to operate freely and reach hardened underground sites. The use of covert Mossad assets on the ground showcased an unprecedented level of operational reach and effectiveness.
  • Third, there was political cover. The back-and-forth between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump in recent weeks — hints of diplomacy, leaks about meetings — served as deliberate misdirection. This was classic Israeli deception doctrine, echoing the 2007 operation in Syria.
• John Spencer on X: Israel’s campaign against Iran is a textbook case in modern operational art. It wasn’t just an airstrike. It was a synchronized, multi-domain offensive that combined cyber, human intelligence, electronic warfare, airpower, special operations, and psychological operations. Israel achieved surprise at the highest level. It launched a campaign that disrupted Iranian defenses before the first fighter jet even crossed the border. This is not warfare of the past. This is what large-scale, intelligence-driven combat looks like in 2025. The decisive moment in war often arrives long before the first bomb drops.
• John Podhoretz in Commentary: The Zionist “experiment” is no longer an experiment. Israel is now a reality. It will endure, as the Jewish people have endured. The meaning of the attack on Iran is unmistakable. Israel will not allow itself to be wiped off the earth, and it will not allow the Jewish people to cower in terror at their future. And it will thrive, as successful nations that defend themselves from evil and prevail in the wake of it always thrive.
• Masih Alinejad in The Free Press: For many people around the world, these will just be foreign names. For me and for the people of Iran, they are the monsters who have impoverished and tyrannized our families…Now, the world faces a choice. It can focus solely on missiles and maps, treating this as another geopolitical chess move. Or it can recognize the human story unfolding beneath the surface, the story of a nation rising from the shadow of its captors. The story of a rising lion…the real victory is still ahead: the day the Islamic Republic falls under the weight of its own crimes and the strength of the people it has tried so hard to suffocate and silence.
• Saeed Ghasseminejad with FDD: The nature of this regime is not subject to negotiation. It will not be pacified by diplomacy or deterred by temporary military defeats. Its commitment to regional hegemony and the destruction of Israel is woven into its very DNA. Therefore, Israel faces a stark choice. It can heed the calls for de-escalation, enjoy a fleeting moment of victory, and allow a wounded and vengeful regime to reconstitute its strength for the next, more lethal, round. Or, it can commit to a policy that sees this conflict through to its only logical conclusion: to topple the regime once and for all.
• John Bolton in the WSJ: The regime’s weakness and fragmentation at senior levels is the starting point for strategy. Iran is led by an ailing octogenarian, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with no clear successor in sight. His son apparently wants the job, but he is widely disliked. The leading potential successor, President Ebrahim Raisi, died last year when his helicopter crashed. Mr. Khamenei has held power for more than 35 years and is only the second supreme leader, so there is no established path for succession, and internal chaos won’t make it any easier. Israel’s decapitation of significant elements of the regime’s military leadership compounds the disarray at the top.

Hostage Update (one body identified)

Last week, the bodies of two hostages were recovered. The identity of the first body, Yair Ya’akov, was made public, but the identity of the second body was withheld for several days at the request of the family. On Sunday, the IDF with the authority of the family announced that Aviv Atzili, a lifelong member Kibbutz Nir Oz, was the second body recovered.

• Per the Times of Israel: Atzili, a warrant officer in reserves and a member of Kibbutz Nir Oz’s civil defense squad, was killed battling Hamas-led terrorists in the Gaza border community on October 7, 2023. He was 49.
• His wife, Liat Atzili, was later taken hostage by Hamas and held captive in Gaza for 54 days before being released.

There are now currently 52 hostages taken on 10/7 currently in captivity in Gaza (there are 53 hostages remaining in total)

• Of the 53 hostages still theoretically in Gaza
  • 31 hostages have been confirmed dead and are currently being held in Gaza
  • Thus, at most, 22 living hostages could still be in Gaza. It has been reported that only 20 are actually alive.
  • Hamas is now holding the body of 1 IDF soldier who was killed in 2014 (Lt. Hadar Goldin’s body remains held in the Gaza Strip)
• 20 hostages remain in captivity and have not been declared dead.
  • 2 hostages are Americans: Meet the Two American Hostages Still Held By Hamas:
    • Itay Chen died on October 7 defending civilians living in an agricultural area near the Gaza borde
    • Omer Neutra was killed when his team drove two miles to the border, where Hamas militants ambushed his tank with rocket-propelled grenades.

• On October 7^th, a total of 251 Israelis were taken hostage.
• During the ceasefire deal in November of 2023, 112 hostages were released.
• 38 hostages were released in the first phase of the 2025 cease fire agreement (including 5 Thai nationals)
• 199 hostages in total have been released or rescued
  • The bodies of 44 hostages have been recovered, including 3 mistakenly killed by the military as they tried to escape their captors.
  • 8 hostages have been heroically rescued by troops alive

Humanitarian Aid

• According to Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT): Today, for the first time, all four distribution centers operated by international aid organizations and GHF operated simultaneously in the Gaza Strip.
• As of Monday, 6/16, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation has distributed almost 26 million meals to date across four distribution sites.
• Today (6/16) the GHF delivered 3.1 million meals across four distribution sites

• The contents of each box exceed the average UN daily caloric guidelines.
• Aid distribution at all sites proceeded without incident

According to Ben Tzion Macales, the IDF operationally controls about 52% of the entire territory of the Gaza Strip (up from 41% just a little over a week ago).

Casualties (+3)

Sgt. First Class (res.) Noam Shemesh (21), was killed by an RPG fired at troops fighting in southern Gaza.

Tal Movshovitz, 28, from the Golani Brigade, was killed by an explosive device in the southern Gaza Strip

Staff Sgt. Naveh Leshem, 20, was killed and 10 others wounded. They were in an armored personnel carrier during operations in Khan Younis when a terror operative placed an explosive device on the outside of the vehicle.

1,904 Israelis have been killed including 870 IDF soldiers and police since October 7th

• The South: 427 IDF soldiers during the ground operation in Gaza have been killed. The toll includes three police officers (two of which were killed in a hostage rescue mission) and two Defense Ministry civilian contractors.
• The North: 133 Israelis (85 IDF soldiers) have been killed during the war in Northern Israel
• The West Bank: 66 Israelis (27 IDF and Israeli security forces)
• Additional Information (according to the IDF):
  • 5,971 (+20 since Wednesday) IDF soldiers have been injured since the beginning of the war, including at least 887 (+2 since Wednesday) who have been severely injured.
  • 2,719 (+9 since Wednesday) IDF soldiers have been injured during ground combat in Gaza, including at least 522 (+2 Wednesday) who have been severely injured.

• The Gaza Casualty Count: According to unverified figures from the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, 55,362 total deaths have been reported, with a civilian/combatant ratio: 1:1.
  • [MUST READ] Report: Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza by Andrew Fox with The Henry Jackson Society
  • On October 7th, Ohad Hemo with Channel 12 Israel News – the country’s largest news network, a leading expert on Palestinian and Arab affairs, mentioned an estimate from Hamas: around 80% of those killed in Gaza are members of the organization and their families.”
  • Read this well documented piece from Tablet published in March of 2024: How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers
• The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs publishes official details on every civilian and IDF casualty.

Regular sources include JINSA, FDD, IDF, AIPAC, The Paul Singer Foundation, The Institute for National Security Studies, the Alma Research and Education Center, Yediot, Jerusalem Post, IDF Casualty Count, algemeimer, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Institute for the Study of War, Tablet Magazine, Mosaic Magazine, Commentary, The Free Press, The Jewish Institute for Strategy and Security, and the Times of Israel