Situational Update

• The Times of Israel writes: Israeli diplomatic officials said on Monday evening that Israel was in the “advanced stages of the negotiations” with Hamas for a ceasefire deal that would see the terror group release some of the hostages it has been holding in Gaza since October 7, 2023, and ending more than 15 months of war.
• YNet reports: In an effort to reach the finish line, the negotiations are expected to extend well into the night. The emerging outline consists of several stages, and includes a cease-fire, the release of hostages in phases, and also changes in the deployment of IDF forces in the Gaza Strip.
  • In the first phase of the deal, the women and the Bibas children are expected to be released. After that, female soldiers will be released, then adults over the age of 50, and those who have been defined as wounded and sick. The release is supposed to last throughout the entire first phase – over 42 days. On the 16th day of the first phase, discussions will begin on implementing the second phase of the deal.
  • The agreement is divided into three phases, and on Monday night political sources said it may be reduced to two. During the second phase, the rest of the live hostages are supposed to be released from captivity, possibly along with the dead.
  • After the first phase, 65 hostages are still expected to remain in Hamas captivity in the Gaza Strip. Among the hostages are 36 who are defined as dead, 7 foreigners, and 22 Israeli hostages who are defined as alive.
  • Further details can be found via this link to YNet’s article
• Israeli journalist Ariel Oseran posts on X: Palestinian sources leak a purported draft proposal of the Gaza ceasefire agreement proposed by Qatar and Egypt, reportedly agreed upon “in principle” by both Hamas and Israel.

  

  

Hostages (no change)

• There are now currently 94 hostages taken on 10/7 currently in captivity in Gaza (there are 98 hostages in total)
• 7 hostages are Americans: Meet the Seven American Hostages Still Held By Hamas
• On October 7^th, a total of 261 Israelis were taken hostage.
• During the ceasefire deal in November, 112 hostages were released.
• 147 hostages in total have been released or rescued
  • The bodies of 40 hostages have been recovered, including 3 mistakenly killed by the military as they tried to escape their captors.
• 8 hostages have been rescued by troops alive
• Of the 94 hostages still theoretically in Gaza
  • At least 34 confirmed bodies are currently being held in Gaza
  • 28-46 hostages are assumed to be dead and held in captivity
  • Thus, at most, 48-66 living hostages could still be in Gaza.
  • Hamas is also holding 2 Israeli civilians who entered the Strip in 2014 and 2015, as well as the bodies of 2 IDF soldiers who were killed in 2014.

Casualties

• 1,838 Israelis have been killed including 840 IDF soldiers since October 7th (+5 since Sunday)

• Capt. Yair Yakov Shushan, 23; Staff Sgt. Yahav Hadar, 20; Staff Sgt. Guy Karmiel, 20; Staff Sgt. Yoav Feffer, 19; Staff Sgt. Aviel Wiseman, 20
  • According the Times of Israel, a team of troops from the Nahal Brigade’s Reconnaissance Unit had set out on Monday morning for a mission in the Beit Hanoun area in Northern Gaza. They were inside a building and preparing to use explosives for engineering activity when the explosives detonated.
• The South: 405 IDF soldiers during the ground operation in Gaza have been killed (+5 since Sunday)
• The North: 131 Israelis (84 IDF soldiers) have been killed during the war in Northern Israel (no change since Sunday)
• Additional Information (according to the IDF):
  • 2,561 (+11 since Sunday) IDF soldiers have been injured during ground combat in Gaza, including at least 495 (+8 since Sunday) who have been severely injured.
  • 5,620 (+14 since Sunday) IDF soldiers have been injured since the beginning of the war, including at least 835 (+10 since Sunday) who have been severely injured.

• The Gaza Casualty Count:
  • According to unverified figures from the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, 46,565 (+680 since Sunday) people have been killed in Gaza, and 109,660 (+464 since Sunday) have been injured during the war.
  • [MUST READ] Report: Questionable Counting: Analysing the Death Toll from the Hamas-Run Ministry of Health in Gaza by Andrew Fox with The Henry Jackson Society
  • On October 7th, Ohad Hemo with Channel 12 Israel News – the country’s largest news network, a leading expert on Palestinian and Arab affairs, mentioned an estimate from Hamas: around 80% of those killed in Gaza are members of the organization and their families.”
  • Read this well documented piece from Tablet published in March: How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers
  • The Associated Press, an outlet with a demonstrated anti-Israel bias, conducted an analysis of alleged Gaza death tolls released by the Hamas-controlled “Gaza Health Ministry.” The analysis found that “9,940 of the dead – 29% of its April 30 total – were not listed in the data” and that “an additional 1,699 records in the ministry’s April data were incomplete and 22 were duplicates.”
• The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs publishes official details on every civilian and IDF casualty.

Listen

[PODCAST] Call Me Back with Dan Senor: We need to talk about Turkey – with Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak & Nadav Eyal

Rocket Alerts

Watch as a Houthi missile fragment is removed from home in Tsur Hadassah, near Jerusalem. The missile was intercepted but some shrapnel fell on this home. Thankfully, no injuries reported at this home.

Source: Rocket Alerts in Israel

X Post

FDD’s Seth Franztman writes on X in response to a statement from the Fatah Movement:

• The Fatah statement says: We will not allow Hamas, which gambled with the interests and resources of the Palestinian people for Iran’s benefit and caused the destruction of Gaza, to repeat its adventures in the West Bank.
• Frantzman writes: This indicates how much they are feeling this threat materialize. I’ve argued for more than a year that one of Hamas’ main goal of the Oct 7 attack was to bring Hamas to power on the West Bank. It is inching toward that goal because it has not been defeated in Gaza. Destroying Hamas is essential.

Antisemitism

[REPORT] A Shield for Hate, Not a Voice for Peace: A report on Jewish Voice for Peace (JVP), exposing how the organization enables hate, has ties to groups that support terrorism, and undermines the cause of peace. By StandWithUs

*notes below include a summary from The Jewish Onliner

• Jewish Voice for Peace (JVP) is a self-described Jewish anti-Zionist organization on the far-left of the political spectrum.
• JVP actively seeks to “drive a wedge” within the Jewish community, positioning itself as the “Jewish wing” of the anti-Israel movement. It strives to separate Jewish identity from Zionism, framing the deep connection most American Jews have with Israel as incompatible with Jewish values and ethics.
• At the same time, the organization promotes antisemitic (anti-Jewish) conspiracy theories and works with partners that are connected to antisemitic terrorists. This includes Samidoun, an extremist group that has been sanctioned by the U.S. and Canadian governments for fund ing terrorism. JVP is also funded heavily by donors who support groups with ties to terrorist organizations.

• Most importantly, despite its name, JVP’s political agenda does not advance peace. On the contrary, it fuels hatred, suffering, and conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. Americans overwhelmingly oppose JVP’s harmful ideas because they want to see a better future for all people in the region.
• Ties To Lebanon
  • JVP’s ties to Lebanon raise significant concerns about foreign influence on its operations. The organization’s communications director worked with Beirut-based entities for over 17 years, and at one point, JVP’s Facebook page was managed by at least one individual based in Lebanon. This is particularly alarming given Hezbollah’s known collaboration with Western anti-Israel groups.
• Ties to Iran
  • Rabbi Lynn Gottlieb, a member of JVP’s Advisory Board and Rabbinical Council, participated in a 2008 interfaith dinner with then-Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who is notorious for denying the Holocaust and advocating for Israel’s destruction. Funding links between JVP and Iranian entities are also evident. The Maximum Difference Foundation, accused of ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has donated $65,000 to JVP. The Foundation has also contributed over $150K to the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), which has been accused of being a “de facto lobby” for Iran’s regime in the West, and is alleged to have been created by former Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif.
• Partnerships with Terrorist Organizations
  • JVP has a documented history of collaborating with U.S.-designated terrorist organizations. It has repeatedly partnered with members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), which has carried out numerous attacks, including the infamous Lod Airport Massacre that killed 26 people, 17 of them U.S. citizens. JVP celebrated the release of PFLP member Khalida Jarrar from Israeli custody, co-hosted a webinar with PFLP hijacker Leila Khaled, and campaigned in support of PFLP member and convicted murderer, Rasmea Odeh, who helped execute a supermarket bombing in Jerusalem that killed two students.

• Promotion of Extremist Narratives
  • JVP’s support also extends to Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), an Iranian proxy and U.S.-designated terror group responsible for numerous attacks on Israeli civilians.
  • JVP’s social media posts have amplified extremist propaganda, including sharing the Houthi terror group’s infamous slogan, “God is great, death to the U.S., death to Israel, curse the Jews, and victory for Islam.”
• Funding from Questionable Sources
  • JVP’s financial backing from other sources raises significant concerns. It has received $650,000 from the Soros Family’s Open Society Foundation, which has also funded groups such as the Israeli terror-designated Al-Haq, as well as PFLP-linked Al Mezan, and the Palestinian Center for Human Rights.
  • The Quitiplas Foundation, which supports the Samidoun terror group’s fiscal sponsor, the Alliance for Global Justice, donated $200,000 to JVP.
• Government and Institutional Grants
  • JVP has received over $700,000 in Paycheck Protection Program loans and $900,000 in grants from private foundations between 2021 and 2023—further demonstrating the organization’s dishonesty.
• Link: StandWithUs Releases Comprehensive Report: “Jewish Voice for Peace – A Shield for Hate, Not a Voice for Peace”

Anti-Zionism and America’s Domestic Radicalization by Seth Mandel in Commentary

• A new report on JVP from the pro-Israel group StandWithUs helpfully condenses the available information for anyone interested, but it ought to be required reading for media and politicians. Although JVP’s contribution to the global wave of anti-Semitism is by now well-known—JVP is proud of itself and presumably wants its donors to know they are getting a return on their investment—two trends are worth highlighting.
  • The first is that JVP has gotten more and more extreme over the years, to the point where—and this is important—its original founding mission statements and organizing principles are irrelevant. It is not “against the occupation,” it is against Israel’s existence. JVP made the change explicit in 2019, though it was always clear where their hearts were, even if they wouldn’t say it.
    • JVP’s behavior since its 2019 conversion to anti-Zionism is helpful in charting the growing radicalization of progressive anti-Israel activism in the lead-up to the post-Oct. 7 explosion of anti-Semitism across America’s public institutions.
    • By the time Oct. 7, 2023 rolled around, JVP was indistinguishable from any number of increasingly radicalized anti-Israel and anti-Semitic pressure groups.
  • Which brings us to the second trend one notices when reading through this report. American political and activist culture has reached a point where radicalization is the destination, not the journey. The purpose is to be extreme, almost regardless of what brand of extremism you follow. The progression of the anti-Israel movement foreshadowed this entirely.
  • Houston, we have a domestic radicalization problem. And as long as we refuse to be honest about the pro-terrorism inclinations and anti-Semitic ideologies kicking this trend into overdrive, it’s only going to get worse.
• Link: Anti-Zionism and America’s Domestic Radicalization

CBS 60 Minutes Platforms Anti-Israel Voices in Skewed Segment by Chaim Lax with Honest Reporting

• On January 12, 2025, CBS News’ hit investigative program 60 Minutes aired a 13-minute segment on three former U.S. State Department officials who resigned from their posts in response to American support for Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza following the October 7 atrocities.
• While the departure of State Department employees in protest of American foreign policy is newsworthy, this segment presents its audience with an imbalanced report by omitting certain salient facts about its interviewees, obscuring important information about Israel’s conduct during the war, and injecting subtle notes of bias throughout the presentation.
• The bulk of the report is based on interviews with three State Department officials who resigned over American support for Israel’s war against Hamas: Josh Paul, Hala Rharrit, and Andrew Miller. While their resignations were portrayed as the result of moral outrage at Israel’s war conduct, 60 Minutes withheld that two of these interviewees have a history of anti-Israel activism and associations with anti-Israel organizations.
  • Since leaving the State Department, Paul has joined DAWN (Democracy for the Arab World Now), an advocacy organization that promotes boycotts of Israel, opposes the Abraham Accords, and supports international sanctions against the Jewish state.
  • Another interviewee whose animus towards the Jewish state was obscured by 60 Minutes is Hala Rharrit, a former Arabic spokesperson who resigned in April 2024. Since leaving the State Department, Rharrit has served as a speaker at several CAIR events. When not speaking on behalf of CAIR, Rharrit has also publicly accused Israel of ” attempted ethnic cleansing” and an “unfolding genocide,” has disregarded the role that Hamas’ use of civilian infrastructure plays in Palestinian deaths in Gaza, and has extended support towards those who have been arrested for their anti-Israel activism.
• The 60 Minutes segment highlights one specific Israeli attack on a Hamas tunnel in Gaza City near the beginning of the war, which it claims likely used 2,000-pound bombs (based on sources who spoke to the program) and which killed 81 women and children (based on information by the British organization Airwars).
  • According to Dr. Brian Cox (an American law professor who formerly served in the Israeli military), 60 Minutes is only presenting half the story to its viewers, showing the damage from the possible use of 2,000-pound bombs without explaining any practices undertaken by the IDF to mitigate civilian harm (such as the likely use of delayed fuses) and what strategic calculations were undertaken prior to the alleged deployment of such munitions.
  • In effect, 60 Minutes is using the 2,000-pound bombs as a bogeyman to sway American public perception and influence future transfers of offensive weapons from the United States to Israel.
• Aside from the above issues, this 60 Minutes segment is also replete with instances of subtle bias that, when joined together, work to skew the viewer’s impression of Israel’s war against Hamas and Israeli-American relations.
  • Citing a controversial Lancet study that claims that there are 70,000 Palestinian casualties in Gaza (20,000 more than the official casualty numbers provided by Hamas). As HonestReporting has previously noted, this study is marred by its questionable methodology, reliance on faulty figures, and a lack of impartiality on the part of the study’s authors.
  • Insinuating that American taxpayers are funding a potential genocide in Gaza with billions of dollars in military aid to Israel. No mention is made of the fact that most of this money is used in American industry and not directly sent to the Jewish state.
  • Erroneously asserting that Israel has “continually blocked aid to the people of Gaza.”
  • The unsubstantiated claim by Hala Rharrit that Israel’s actions are counter to American interests and have placed a “target” on America’s back. This assertion disregards the threats that the United States has faced from Islamist terror organizations prior to October 7 and places the blame on Israel for terrorism rather than on the terrorists themselves.
• Link: CBS 60 Minutes Platforms Anti-Israel Voices in Skewed Segment
• Link to an X Thread with Dr. Brian Cox which I highly recommend reading through.
• I recommend this summary below from Dani Epstein on Dr. Cox’s thread
  • By any applicable standards, Dr Cox qualifies as an expert; he certainly has more expertise than anyone alluded to in the 60 Minutes segment he analyses. Look him up and decide for yourself.
  • He initially outlines the claims made by the 60 minutes segment: that Israel uses 2,000lbs bombs indiscriminately. As an illustration, the air strike on the Al-Taj building in Gaza City was quoted as having killed over 100 people. Furthermore, Biden delayed a shipment of bombs due to his concern that Israel was engaged in bombing “indiscriminately”.
  • There are several issues with the story. How was the death toll calculated? How many of those were civilians, and how many Hamas terrorists? What was the military value of the target? Were any harm mitigation measures employed?
  • Civilian death figures are one of the central features of the media war against Israel, and by far the most problematic. Ignoring Hamas figures is easy enough, since they are a terrorist organisation, they are the belligerents, and of course they have been caught lying through their teeth on every possible occasion.
  • Airwars, on the other hand, are one of those organisations whose statistics and figures out to be respected. However, as Dr. Cox observes, they are quite happy to include even deaths reported on social media. They equally have no metric to determine which deaths were those of terrorists. In fact, Airwars data is no more reliable than that of Hamas. Despite this, 60 Minutes was quite happy to source them as being factual and accurate.
  • The military value of every target hit by the IDF cannot be known at this stage. This is purely the domain of the IDF, and they aren’t exactly sharing much of this. As a metric, however, Dr Cox observes that when the “All Eyes on Rafah” campaign was in full swing, and Kamala had apparently “read all the maps”, Israel went ahead anyway. The net product of that operation was fewer than 100 civilian casualties according to Hamas themselves, and the death of Yahyah Sinwar, the architect of the October 7th massacre. All in all, not only were over a hundreds of thousands of Gazans successfully evacuated from the area, but Daddy Al Baddy was whacked as well. Israel claimed at the start of the Rafah campaign that Sinwar was still there, and they proved to be correct, justifying the entire operation.
  • Given all this, one might still question the use of 2,000lbs bombs. This is very large ordinance, and to the average person sounds like overkill. However, as Dr Cox points out, there are methods to mitigate damage even with such large weapons, such as delayed fuzing, in which the bomb detonates underground, creating an inverse volcano effect in which a steep-walled crater is formed which narrows the field of damage considerably.
  • It’s worth noting that the IDF have developed precision targeting methods that do not involve smart guidance that are almost as accurate as using lasers or GPS, and they have two main packages available for smart guidance, one developed natively.
  • The conclusion to all this is that this 60 Minutes segments weaves a tale that does not bear close examination, due to the inaccuracies and sheer ignorance of the producers and journalists involved. It is an indictment of the profession that the media in general has forgone consulting actual experts in the topic in favour of producing hit-pieces that are nothing short of lies, calumnies and canards. Currently the foremost experts with the greatest degree of information have all concluded that Israel is not merely waging a moral war, but exceeding the standards that any other army has yet to set.

Israel/Middle East Related Articles

Hamas Has Another Sinwar. And He’s Rebuilding. By Summer Said, Anat Peled, and Rory Jones in the WSJ

• …now the U.S.-designated terrorist group has another Sinwar in charge, Yahya’s younger brother Mohammed, and he is working to build the militant group back up.
• …the violence has also created a new generation of willing recruits and littered Gaza with unexploded ordnance that Hamas fighters can refashion into improvised bombs. The militant group is using those tools to continue to inflict pain.
  “We are in a situation where the pace at which Hamas is rebuilding itself is higher than the pace that the IDF is eradicating them,” said Amir Avivi, a retired Israeli brigadier general, referring to the Israel Defense Forces. “Mohammed Sinwar is managing everything.”
• When Israeli soldiers killed his brother in October, the movement’s officials, based in the Qatari capital, Doha, decided to form a collective leadership council rather than appoint a new chief. But Hamas militants in Gaza didn’t go along and now operate autonomously under the younger Sinwar…
• Unlike his brother, who spent more than two decades in an Israeli prison, Mohammed hasn’t spent a significant amount of time in Israeli jail and is less understood by Israel’s security establishment. He has operated largely behind the scenes, according to Arab officials, earning him the nickname “Shadow.”
• With Yahya Sinwar, Deif and Deif’s deputy all dead, Mohammed Sinwar is now Hamas’s most senior commander in Gaza, along with Izz al-Din Haddad, the military head in northern Gaza
• Before the war, Israel believed that Hamas had up to 30,000 fighters arranged into 24 battalions in a structure that loosely resembled a state military. The Israeli military now says it has destroyed that organized structure and has killed about 17,000 fighters, and detained thousands of others.
• The Israeli military says Hamas has recruited many hundreds of people in the past few months and that recruiting was happening across Gaza, with a focus on the north.
• The new fighters, while inexperienced, are launching hit-and-run attacks in small cells of just a few fighters. They are using guns and antitank weapons that require little military training.
• Hamas militants are also targeting funerals and prayer gatherings to find aggrieved young Palestinians inclined to sign up
• Link: Hamas Has Another Sinwar. And He’s Rebuilding

Regular sources include JINSA, FDD, IDF, AIPAC, The Paul Singer Foundation, The Institute for National Security Studies, the Alma Research and Education Center, Yediot, Jerusalem Post, IDF Casualty Count, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Institute for the Study of War, Tablet Magazine, Mosaic Magazine, The Free Press, and the Times of Israel